Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
56
Model margin
+5.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/31 | 208 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerald Moore | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Milne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 5 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Brian Milne | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.30
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.