Closing spread
STL -3.5
Total
56
Model margin
+5.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:00 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:15 | 5 | 45 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 5:33 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 3:56 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 0:02 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NO | Q2 12:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 10:39 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:29 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 10:29 | 15 | 92 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| NO | Q2 1:18 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 0:02 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–7 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 56 | Field goal | 13–7 |
| NO | Q3 11:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LA | Q3 10:31 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 13–7 |
| NO | Q3 9:11 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LA | Q3 7:01 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 19–7 |
| NO | Q3 2:45 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 19–7 |
| LA | Q3 0:20 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 19–7 |
| NO | Q4 11:36 | 8 | 74 | Touchdown | 19–14 |
| LA | Q4 9:21 | 10 | 94 | Touchdown | 26–14 |
| NO | Q4 3:27 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 26–21 |
| LA | Q4 2:24 | 7 | 57 | End of half | 26–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/31 | 208 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerald Moore | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Milne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 10 | 71 | 1 |
| Joe Horn | 5 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Brian Milne | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
6.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.30
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.81
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.