2000 · Week 17 · Division

Final / OT

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Shaun King

14·17

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 15°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

38

Model margin

+2.1est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPackers
  • -0.016EPA / play-0.010
  • 39.8%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.029
  • -0.086EPA / rush-0.076
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
  • 1.46Points / drive1.67
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.114EPA / play allowed-0.033

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–9 since 1999

Meetings average 40.8 points. GB are 7-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4GB @ TB17–14GB
2023 · W15TB @ GB34–20TB
2022 · W3GB @ TB14–12GB
2020 · playoffsTB @ GB31–26TB
2020 · W6GB @ TB10–38TB
2017 · W13TB @ GB20–26GB
2014 · W16GB @ TB20–3GB
2011 · W11TB @ GB26–35GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–GB
GBQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:443-9Punt0–0
GBQ1 11:371148Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 5:5530Punt0–7
GBQ1 4:1935Punt0–7
TBQ1 2:45732Punt0–7
GBQ2 14:31619Punt0–7
TBQ2 12:05422Punt0–7
GBQ2 10:2738Punt0–7
TBQ2 8:3938Punt0–7
GBQ2 7:0835Punt0–7
TBQ2 6:10620Punt0–7
GBQ2 3:4730Punt0–7
TBQ2 1:55519Punt0–7
GBQ2 1:1344Turnover on downs0–7
TBQ3 15:0038Punt0–7
GBQ3 12:36638Touchdown0–14
TBQ3 10:0135Punt0–14
GBQ3 9:02534Turnover0–14
TBQ3 7:071033Field goal3–14
GBQ3 2:03736Turnover3–14
TBQ4 14:0730Punt3–14
GBQ4 12:4835Punt3–14
TBQ4 11:06684Touchdown11–14
GBQ4 9:0220Turnover11–14
TBQ4 8:4139Field goal14–14
GBQ4 7:50834Punt14–14
TBQ4 4:4436Punt14–14
GBQ4 2:36312Turnover14–14
TBQ4 1:45835Missed field goal14–14
GBQ4 0:091-1End of half14–14
GBOT958Field goal14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun King21/4223710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn15402.70
Shaun King6203.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson68691
Jacquez Green48500
Reidel Anthony34480
Warrick Dunn510440
Dave Moore310260
Todd Yoder0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre20/4219602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahman Green27742.72
De'Mond Parker5357.00
Brett Favre4235.80
Donald Driver144.00
Bill Schroeder1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ahman Green99780
Bill Schroeder37510
Donald Driver210230
De'Mond Parker22150
Bubba Franks12110
Ryan Wetnight1360
Tyrone Davis0100
Charles Lee0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.06