2000 · Week 17 · Division
Final / OT
Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 15°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
38
Model margin
+2.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.010
- 39.8%Success rate40.2%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.076
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- 33.9%Third-down rate38.8%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.46Points / drive1.67
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.114EPA / play allowed-0.033
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–8 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. GB are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 21/42 | 237 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Shaun King | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Jacquez Green | 4 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 10 | 44 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 3 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| Todd Yoder | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/42 | 196 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 27 | 74 | 2.7 | 2 |
| De'Mond Parker | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahman Green | 9 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 7 | 51 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 2 | 10 | 23 | 0 |
| De'Mond Parker | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Bubba Franks | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Lee | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.06