Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+8.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.086EPA / play-0.056
- 45.4%Success rate40.2%
- +0.171EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.052
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.4%
- 44.1%Third-down rate40.7%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.45
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.030EPA / play allowed-0.217
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 13/28 | 124 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarious Jackson | 5/10 | 54 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed McCaffrey | 8 | 15 | 75 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 3 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 9/14 | 130 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 30 | 110 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Priest Holmes | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 3 | 4 | 73 | 1 |
| Qadry Ismail | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.04
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.38