2000 · WC

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Gus Frerotte

3·21

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Trent Dilfer

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 22°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+8.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRavens
  • +0.086EPA / play-0.056
  • 45.4%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.025EPA / rush-0.052
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.4%
  • 44.1%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate36.0%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.45
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
  • -0.030EPA / play allowed-0.217

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BAL
BALQ1 15:00722Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:2320Turnover0–0
BALQ1 11:11715Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:28410Punt0–0
BALQ1 5:2834Punt0–0
DENQ1 3:553-6Punt0–0
BALQ1 2:341075Touchdown0–7
DENQ2 11:431278Field goal3–7
BALQ2 4:31158Touchdown3–14
DENQ2 4:06313Punt3–14
BALQ2 1:5131Punt3–14
DENQ2 0:081-1End of half3–14
DENQ3 15:003-4Punt3–14
BALQ3 13:5030Punt3–14
DENQ3 12:50613Punt3–14
BALQ3 9:28512Punt3–14
DENQ3 5:2338Punt3–14
BALQ3 4:01228Touchdown3–21
DENQ3 3:1938Punt3–21
BALQ3 1:3634Punt3–21
DENQ4 14:4330Punt3–21
BALQ4 14:21614Punt3–21
DENQ4 10:31913Punt3–21
BALQ4 7:0036Punt3–21
DENQ4 4:31527Turnover on downs3–21
BALQ4 3:1332Punt3–21
DENQ4 1:49618Turnover on downs3–21
BALQ4 0:081-1End of half3–21

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte13/2812401
Jarious Jackson5/105400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson15402.70
Rod Smith231.50
Gus Frerotte1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ed McCaffrey815750
Rod Smith38580
Howard Griffith13160
Mike Anderson22100
Travis McGriff1160
Desmond Clark1350
Byron Chamberlain0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Dilfer9/1413010
Tony Banks0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis301103.72
Priest Holmes561.20
Jermaine Lewis155.00
Trent Dilfer122.00
Tony Banks1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Shannon Sharpe34731
Qadry Ismail46350
Jamal Lewis13150
Jermaine Lewis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%5.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.04
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+8.38