2000 · WC · Division

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

17·23

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

Pro Player Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

IND -1.5

Total

42

Model margin

+1.3est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.123EPA / play-0.033
  • 45.8%Success rate38.4%
  • +0.249EPA / dropback+0.081
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.150
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 46.8%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 62.8%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.52
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.005EPA / play allowed-0.111

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 11–8 since 1999

IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. MIA are 10-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1MIA @ IND8–33IND
2024 · W7MIA @ IND10–16IND
2021 · W4IND @ MIA27–17IND
2019 · W10MIA @ IND16–12MIA
2018 · W12MIA @ IND24–27IND
2015 · W16IND @ MIA18–12IND
2013 · W2MIA @ IND24–20MIA
2012 · W9MIA @ IND20–23IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–MIA
INDQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:15633Turnover on downs0–0
INDQ1 10:48647Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 7:49411Punt3–0
INDQ1 6:1037Punt3–0
MIAQ1 4:40738Turnover3–0
INDQ1 0:14746Turnover on downs3–0
MIAQ2 12:0410Turnover3–0
INDQ2 11:58617Field goal6–0
MIAQ2 9:3331Turnover6–0
INDQ2 8:34218Touchdown14–0
MIAQ2 7:471244Missed field goal14–0
INDQ2 0:3110End of half14–0
MIAQ3 15:001170Touchdown14–7
INDQ3 8:09727Punt14–7
MIAQ3 4:3639Punt14–7
INDQ3 2:41614Punt14–7
MIAQ3 0:25853Field goal14–10
INDQ4 10:23955Field goal17–10
MIAQ4 4:551485Touchdown17–17
INDQ4 0:3413End of half17–17
MIAOT519Punt17–17
INDOT651Missed field goal17–17
MIAOT1171Touchdown17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning17/3219410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James211075.10
Peyton Manning1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerome Pathon57691
Marvin Harrison511630
Edgerrin James34330
Ken Dilger34160
Marcus Pollard14130
Terrence Wilkins0200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler19/3418513

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Smith402095.22
Jay Fiedler7436.10
Tony Martin166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
O.J. McDuffie412570
Oronde Gadsden45380
Tony Martin24210
Autry Denson23180
J.J. Johnson22180
Lamar Smith33180
Jed Weaver1191
Jeff Ogden1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.30