Closing spread
STL -5.5
Total
55
Model margin
+5.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 16/29 | 266 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 16 | 21 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jerald Moore | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 6 | 9 | 142 | 3 |
| Robert Wilson | 3 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.30
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.