2000 · WC
Final
Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 34°F · wind 18mph
Closing spread
TB -3
Total
34
Model margin
+3.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.003
- 39.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.138
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 33.9%Third-down rate41.3%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.46Points / drive1.62
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.114EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–9 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. PHI are 10-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 12:36 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 9:25 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 6:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 5:09 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 2:17 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q2 14:05 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 10:16 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TB | Q2 7:22 | 6 | -7 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 4:20 | 4 | 15 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| TB | Q2 3:21 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| PHI | Q2 1:43 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| TB | Q2 0:12 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 3–14 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 59 | Missed field goal | 3–14 |
| TB | Q3 7:15 | 5 | 3 | Punt | 3–14 |
| PHI | Q3 4:33 | 11 | 35 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| TB | Q4 14:13 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–21 |
| PHI | Q4 12:33 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 3–21 |
| TB | Q4 11:44 | 5 | 15 | Turnover on downs | 3–21 |
| PHI | Q4 10:27 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 3–21 |
| TB | Q4 6:30 | 11 | 78 | Turnover on downs | 3–21 |
| PHI | Q4 3:46 | 6 | 18 | End of half | 3–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 17/31 | 171 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun King | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 8 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 6 | 10 | 106 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 24/33 | 161 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Warren | 22 | 85 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 5 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| Todd Pinkston | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
6.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.60
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.16