Closing spread
OAK -9
Total
42
Model margin
+2.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 18/37 | 176 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autry Denson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 8 | 5 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. McDuffie | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 1 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 4 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.