Closing spread
OAK -9
Total
42
Model margin
+2.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:21 | 4 | 20 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 11:36 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q1 11:36 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 9:36 | 9 | 36 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| MIA | Q1 4:52 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 0:51 | 11 | 73 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| MIA | Q2 8:36 | 4 | 32 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 6:07 | 9 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| MIA | Q2 1:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–20 |
| LV | Q2 1:07 | 5 | 25 | Missed field goal | 0–20 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–20 |
| LV | Q3 12:46 | 12 | 54 | Touchdown | 0–27 |
| MIA | Q3 5:56 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–27 |
| LV | Q3 3:39 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–27 |
| MIA | Q3 2:22 | 6 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 0–27 |
| LV | Q3 0:31 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| MIA | Q4 14:14 | 9 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 0–27 |
| LV | Q4 12:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–27 |
| MIA | Q4 10:41 | 6 | 12 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| LV | Q4 9:12 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–27 |
| MIA | Q4 7:33 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–27 |
| LV | Q4 6:36 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–27 |
| MIA | Q4 2:08 | 8 | 21 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| LV | Q4 1:03 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 0–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 18/37 | 176 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Autry Denson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 8 | 5 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. McDuffie | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Autry Denson | 6 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 1 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 4 | 8 | 20 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.21%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+2.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.