Closing spread
MIN -8
Total
49.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.102
- 42.1%Success rate44.7%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.184
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.026
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.6%
- 42.9%Third-down rate46.0%
- 56.9%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.53Points / drive2.14
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.071EPA / play allowed+0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 11–7 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. MIN are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 13:17 | 3 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 11:57 | 10 | 30 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q1 7:46 | 11 | 72 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| NO | Q1 1:36 | 8 | 32 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 12:29 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NO | Q2 11:31 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 9:33 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NO | Q2 7:48 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 5:09 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| NO | Q2 1:29 | 10 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 3–17 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| NO | Q3 13:33 | 8 | 88 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| MIN | Q3 9:33 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| NO | Q3 4:31 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 10–27 |
| MIN | Q3 2:33 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 10–27 |
| NO | Q3 0:23 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| MIN | Q3 0:18 | 8 | 29 | Touchdown | 10–34 |
| NO | Q4 10:46 | 11 | 55 | Turnover | 10–34 |
| MIN | Q4 6:27 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 10–34 |
| NO | Q4 3:17 | 3 | 66 | Touchdown | 16–34 |
| MIN | Q4 2:19 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 16–34 |
| NO | Q4 0:22 | 1 | 8 | End of half | 16–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 30/48 | 295 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Chad Morton | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 9 | 14 | 125 | 1 |
| Chad Morton | 13 | 14 | 106 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Dave Stachelski | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 17/31 | 302 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 25 | 74 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 2 | 7 | 121 | 2 |
| Cris Carter | 8 | 13 | 120 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Troy Walters | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Johnny McWilliams | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.30
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+0.07