Closing spread
NYG -4.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play+0.016
- 40.3%Success rate40.1%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- 41.3%Third-down rate39.9%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.62Points / drive1.73
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.065
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 20/41 | 181 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 4 | 10 | 39 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 12/19 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Ike Hilliard | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+2.76