2000 · DIV · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

10·20

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYG -4.5

Total

33.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • -0.003EPA / play+0.016
  • 40.3%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.130
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.7%
  • 41.3%Third-down rate39.9%
  • 52.6%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.73
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.085EPA / play allowed-0.065

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 14:4335Punt0–7
NYGQ1 13:03617Punt0–7
PHIQ1 9:4939Punt0–7
NYGQ1 8:45413Punt0–7
PHIQ1 6:2530Punt0–7
NYGQ1 4:5833Punt0–7
PHIQ1 2:58213Turnover0–7
NYGQ1 2:14514Field goal0–10
PHIQ2 14:55522Punt0–10
NYGQ2 11:56756Turnover0–10
PHIQ2 7:4532Punt0–10
NYGQ2 6:493-1Punt0–10
PHIQ2 5:063-6Turnover0–10
NYGQ2 4:09312Turnover0–10
PHIQ2 2:49411Opp touchdown0–17
NYGQ2 1:4000Opp touchdown0–17
PHIQ2 1:40640Field goal3–17
NYGQ2 0:261-1End of half3–17
PHIQ3 15:003-1Punt3–17
NYGQ3 13:46520Punt3–17
PHIQ3 10:5431Punt3–17
PHIQ3 8:52420Missed field goal3–17
NYGQ3 6:58514Punt3–17
PHIQ3 4:40722Punt3–17
NYGQ3 1:521293Field goal3–20
PHIQ4 8:41938Turnover on downs3–20
NYGQ4 5:2362Punt3–20
PHIQ4 2:21510Touchdown10–20
NYGQ4 1:563-5End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb20/4118111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Mitchell3186.00
Donovan McNabb5173.40
Chris Warren6111.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Johnson59530
Torrance Small410391
Chad Lewis35270
Brian Mitchell34270
Chris Warren22140
Luther Broughton11130
Na Brown1640
Cecil Martin1140
Jeff Thomason0100
Todd Pinkston0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins12/1912500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne17533.10
Tiki Barber15352.30
Kerry Collins8172.10
Amani Toomer166.00
Greg Comella122.00
Ike Hilliard1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pete Mitchell22470
Ike Hilliard34350
Amani Toomer24230
Tiki Barber35130
Ron Dayne1140
Greg Comella1230
Ron Dixon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+2.76