Closing spread
OAK -6
Total
38
Model margin
-0.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BAL–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:41 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 8:46 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 6:44 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:42 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 4:18 | 3 | 1 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:29 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 1:52 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:00 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q2 12:35 | 3 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q2 11:08 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| BAL | Q2 10:12 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 8:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q2 6:57 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 3:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q2 1:10 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -9 | Turnover | 10–0 |
| LV | Q3 13:41 | 8 | 21 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| BAL | Q3 10:07 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| LV | Q3 5:08 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 13–3 |
| BAL | Q3 2:14 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| LV | Q3 0:54 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| BAL | Q3 0:39 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 13–3 |
| LV | Q4 12:06 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| BAL | Q4 11:32 | 6 | 2 | Field goal | 16–3 |
| LV | Q4 7:28 | 14 | 84 | Turnover | 16–3 |
| BAL | Q4 3:41 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 16–3 |
| LV | Q4 0:16 | 1 | 19 | End of half | 16–3 |
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 9/18 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 29 | 79 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 1 | 4 | 96 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.