Closing spread
OAK -6
Total
38
Model margin
-0.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
BAL lead 7–5 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 6-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 9/18 | 190 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 29 | 79 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 1 | 4 | 96 | 1 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.71
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.