Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
46
Model margin
+7.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.097
- 39.3%Success rate45.1%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.001
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- 40.9%Third-down rate44.9%
- 42.1%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 1.45Points / drive1.93
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.060EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. SF are 10-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 11/18 | 121 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 0/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 26 | 86 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 2 | 32 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Martin | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 26/40 | 335 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 7 | 14 | 93 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 5 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| Tai Streets | 3 | 4 | 81 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
69.3%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.77