Closing spread
IND -10
Total
44.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
IND perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play+0.005
- 39.3%Success rate45.6%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.6%
- 34.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.05Points / drive1.62
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.039EPA / play allowed+0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. IND are 9-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 10 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:50 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:50 | 3 | 7 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 11:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:41 | 12 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| BUF | Q1 5:12 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 7–7 |
| IND | Q1 2:27 | 2 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| BUF | Q1 1:35 | 9 | 79 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| IND | Q2 12:00 | 2 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| BUF | Q2 11:19 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| IND | Q2 9:46 | 2 | 41 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| BUF | Q2 9:11 | 8 | 41 | Field goal | 17–28 |
| IND | Q2 4:13 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| BUF | Q2 1:00 | 6 | 64 | Missed field goal | 17–35 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 20–35 |
| IND | Q3 10:35 | 11 | 53 | Touchdown | 20–42 |
| BUF | Q3 5:57 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 20–42 |
| IND | Q3 2:52 | 8 | 73 | Missed field goal | 20–42 |
| BUF | Q4 12:49 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 20–42 |
| IND | Q4 11:40 | 9 | 68 | Turnover | 20–42 |
| BUF | Q4 7:29 | 16 | 100 | Touchdown | 26–42 |
| IND | Q4 1:25 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 26–42 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 24/37 | 257 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 2 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/29 | 421 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 23 | 111 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Pathon | 9 | 9 | 168 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 7 | 12 | 146 | 3 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
3.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.76