Closing spread
NYJ -1.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.017
- 41.1%Success rate41.5%
- +0.011EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.107
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.6%
- 37.4%Third-down rate41.6%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.16Points / drive1.32
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 16/28 | 137 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 24 | 106 | 4.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/28 | 159 | 0 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 5/10 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 5 | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| David Patten | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.07
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.54