Closing spread
STL -6
Total
50
Model margin
+5.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:47 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:59 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 7:41 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 9–0 |
| SF | Q1 2:51 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 9–0 |
| LA | Q2 14:01 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 12–0 |
| SF | Q2 12:37 | 16 | 76 | Touchdown | 12–7 |
| LA | Q2 4:07 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 12–7 |
| SF | Q2 3:12 | 6 | 19 | Touchdown | 12–13 |
| LA | Q2 1:15 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 12–13 |
| SF | Q2 0:24 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 12–16 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 12–16 |
| SF | Q3 13:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 12–16 |
| LA | Q3 11:38 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 19–16 |
| SF | Q3 7:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 19–16 |
| LA | Q3 5:14 | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 22–16 |
| SF | Q3 1:24 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 28–16 |
| LA | Q4 14:42 | 1 | 39 | Touchdown | 30–16 |
| SF | Q4 14:32 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 30–23 |
| LA | Q4 10:31 | 2 | 45 | Turnover | 30–23 |
| SF | Q4 9:37 | 6 | 30 | Field goal | 30–26 |
| LA | Q4 6:47 | 12 | 61 | End of half | 30–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 19/34 | 121 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 10 | 51 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 3 | 3 | 22 | 1 |
| Eric Johnson | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 6 | 5 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.