2001 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

13·44

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

IND -11.5

Total

45

Model margin

+5.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.005EPA / play-0.017
  • 45.6%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback+0.059
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.107
  • 10.6%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 41.4%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.32
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
  • +0.059EPA / play allowed-0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NE
NEQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:3839Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:39729Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:00430Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:08676Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 4:23614Punt0–7
NEQ1 2:061247Punt0–7
INDQ2 10:5539Punt0–7
NEQ2 9:01711Field goal0–10
INDQ2 5:501045Opp touchdown0–17
NEQ2 1:4200Opp touchdown0–17
INDQ2 1:4237Punt0–17
NEQ2 0:21323Field goal0–20
INDQ3 15:00323Turnover0–20
NEQ3 13:5037Punt0–20
INDQ3 11:422-1Turnover0–20
NEQ3 10:5933Field goal0–23
INDQ3 9:373-1Punt0–23
NEQ3 8:36828Punt0–23
INDQ3 4:23764Touchdown7–23
NEQ3 0:53562Touchdown7–30
INDQ4 13:242-8Opp touchdown7–37
NEQ4 12:2400Opp touchdown7–37
INDQ4 12:241359Touchdown13–37
NEQ4 8:51852Touchdown13–44
INDQ4 3:391472End of half13–44

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning20/3419613
Mark Rypien5/95700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James17553.20
Dominic Rhodes4215.30
Peyton Manning2147.01
Jerome Pathon1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Pollard45631
Jerome Pathon511570
Marvin Harrison36490
Edgerrin James67380
Terrence Wilkins35150
Trevor Insley23120
Ken Dilger15110
Dominic Rhodes1180

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady13/2316800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith22944.32
Kevin Faulk9485.31
Troy Brown2115.50
David Patten11111.00
Tom Brady122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antowain Smith33580
Kevin Faulk22380
Troy Brown34210
Torrance Small24200
David Patten15170
Jermaine Wiggins12110
Charles Johnson1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -11.53.5%6.4%7.4%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

0.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.14