Closing spread
IND -11.5
Total
45
Model margin
+5.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.005EPA / play-0.017
- 45.6%Success rate41.5%
- +0.055EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.107
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 41.4%Third-down rate41.6%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.62Points / drive1.32
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.059EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 20/34 | 196 | 1 | 3 |
| Mark Rypien | 5/9 | 57 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pollard | 4 | 5 | 63 | 1 |
| Jerome Pathon | 5 | 11 | 57 | 0 |
| Marvin Harrison | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 6 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Trevor Insley | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 13/23 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 22 | 94 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Kevin Faulk | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
0.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.14