Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
37
Model margin
+3.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.048
- 38.2%Success rate40.3%
- +0.007EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- 38.8%Third-down rate35.2%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.58Points / drive1.21
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
- +0.009EPA / play allowed-0.053
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 9–6 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 49.7 points. NYG are 6-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 28/54 | 291 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 8 | 10 | 105 | 1 |
| Robert Wilson | 7 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 4 | 17 | 48 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 4 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 9/18 | 135 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 19 | 111 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Kerry Collins | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Damon Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Jurevicius | 2 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Ike Hilliard | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Amani Toomer | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Damon Washington | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Howard Cross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcellus Rivers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-1.12
- Expected margin+3.33