2001 · Week 3

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

13·21

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

Giants Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

37

Model margin

+3.3est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapGiants
  • -0.068EPA / play-0.048
  • 38.2%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.007EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.113
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate35.2%
  • 52.3%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.21
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.4%
  • +0.009EPA / play allowed-0.053

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 10–6 since 1999

NO have won 4 straight. Meetings average 50.4 points. NYG are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NO @ NYG34–27NO
2025 · W5NYG @ NO14–26NO
2024 · W14NO @ NYG14–11NO
2023 · W15NYG @ NO6–24NO
2021 · W4NYG @ NO27–21NYG
2018 · W4NO @ NYG33–18NO
2016 · W2NO @ NYG13–16NYG
2015 · W8NYG @ NO49–52NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–NYG
NOQ1 15:0042Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:4848Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:061325Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:4052Punt0–0
NOQ1 1:55937Punt0–0
NYGQ2 12:343-8Punt0–0
NOQ2 11:1231Punt0–0
NYGQ2 9:54771Touchdown0–7
NOQ2 7:5237Punt0–7
NYGQ2 6:17551Touchdown0–14
NOQ2 3:311055Field goal3–14
NYGQ2 0:0100End of half3–14
NYGQ3 15:00612Punt3–14
NOQ3 11:534-1Punt3–14
NYGQ3 9:5850Punt3–14
NOQ3 7:4632Punt3–14
NYGQ3 6:24742Punt3–14
NOQ3 2:14416Turnover3–14
NYGQ3 0:1739Punt3–14
NOQ4 13:34420Punt3–14
NYGQ4 12:063-1Punt3–14
NOQ4 10:27859Touchdown10–14
NYGQ4 7:48450Touchdown10–21
NOQ4 6:05446Field goal13–21
NYGQ4 4:36417Turnover13–21
NOQ4 3:171461End of half13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Brooks28/5429111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams16533.30
Aaron Brooks4174.30
Joe Horn144.00
Deuce McAllister100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Willie Jackson8101051
Robert Wilson78610
Ricky Williams47490
Joe Horn417480
Albert Connell47250
Cameron Cleeland1130

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins9/1813510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ron Dayne191115.81
Tiki Barber3217.01
Kerry Collins3103.30
Greg Comella199.00
Amani Toomer111.00
Damon Washington111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Jurevicius24601
Ike Hilliard24320
Amani Toomer11250
Tiki Barber1290
Ron Dayne1170
Damon Washington1120
Greg Comella1300
Howard Cross0100
Marcellus Rivers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-1.12
  • Expected margin+3.33