Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
36
Model margin
-5.3est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.060EPA / play-0.062
- 42.5%Success rate39.3%
- +0.159EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.115
- 11.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- 45.8%Third-down rate34.4%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.58Points / drive1.05
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.148EPA / play allowed+0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 15/22 | 107 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Bettis | 22 | 114 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kordell Stewart | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 9 | 11 | 79 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Fuamatu-Ma'afala | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 13/22 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 3/5 | 44 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 17 | 30 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy McDaniel | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 2 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.1%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.95
- Rest differential-1.12
- Expected margin-5.33