Closing spread
SF -6.5
Total
45
Model margin
+8.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.195EPA / play+0.097
- 35.9%Success rate45.1%
- -0.169EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.001
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.2%
- 30.3%Third-down rate44.9%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 0.78Points / drive1.93
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.016EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. SF are 5-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:01 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 11:33 | 8 | 45 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 7:17 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 5:39 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 3:03 | 9 | 47 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 14:17 | 8 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 9:31 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 4:31 | 10 | 99 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q2 1:07 | 8 | 52 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 14–10 |
| CAR | Q3 13:54 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 14–10 |
| SF | Q3 13:54 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| CAR | Q3 9:11 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 14–17 |
| SF | Q3 6:04 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| CAR | Q3 2:36 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–24 |
| SF | Q3 0:56 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 14–24 |
| CAR | Q4 13:30 | 4 | 29 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| SF | Q4 11:54 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 14–24 |
| CAR | Q4 8:43 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 14–24 |
| SF | Q4 6:51 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 14–24 |
| CAR | Q4 5:07 | 13 | 45 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| SF | Q4 2:00 | 5 | 21 | End of half | 14–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 29/47 | 275 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Walls | 10 | 11 | 91 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 8 | 16 | 62 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 1 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Luther Broughton | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 17/31 | 212 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 18 | 74 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 8 | 14 | 118 | 2 |
| Terry Jackson | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+8.84