Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.068
- 42.2%Success rate38.2%
- -0.012EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- 42.5%Third-down rate38.8%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.40Points / drive1.58
- 3.7%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.044EPA / play allowed+0.009
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 11–7 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.2 points. NO are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:03 | 5 | 23 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 10:27 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NO | Q1 8:51 | 9 | 46 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q1 4:56 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–6 |
| NO | Q1 3:30 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q1 2:35 | 4 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| NO | Q1 0:19 | 15 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–12 |
| MIN | Q2 7:50 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–12 |
| NO | Q2 6:35 | 4 | 19 | Field goal | 7–15 |
| MIN | Q2 4:29 | 4 | 66 | Turnover | 7–15 |
| NO | Q2 2:17 | 6 | 54 | Turnover | 7–15 |
| MIN | Q2 1:05 | 2 | 4 | End of half | 7–15 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 33 | Field goal | 7–18 |
| MIN | Q3 10:01 | 7 | 42 | Opp touchdown | 7–25 |
| NO | Q3 5:38 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–25 |
| MIN | Q3 5:38 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 15–25 |
| NO | Q3 0:14 | 10 | 84 | Field goal | 15–28 |
| MIN | Q4 8:37 | 4 | -6 | Punt | 15–28 |
| NO | Q4 7:31 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 15–28 |
| MIN | Q4 6:29 | 9 | 64 | Turnover on downs | 15–28 |
| NO | Q4 3:43 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 15–28 |
| MIN | Q4 0:19 | 1 | 3 | End of half | 15–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 23/34 | 332 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bennett | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 4 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 2 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 4 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Doug Chapman | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 15/30 | 210 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 30 | 136 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 6 | 9 | 95 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 1 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.93