Closing spread
MIA -9.5
Total
35
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.023
- 41.5%Success rate41.2%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.068
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.134
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 41.6%Third-down rate41.1%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.32Points / drive1.31
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.050
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 30–25 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. MIA are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:57 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:49 | 2 | 10 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 12:03 | 14 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NE | Q1 3:39 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q1 2:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| MIA | Q1 0:13 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| NE | Q2 14:21 | 12 | 56 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q2 6:42 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NE | Q2 4:10 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q2 2:37 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| NE | Q2 0:07 | 2 | 0 | End of half | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 61 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| NE | Q3 7:58 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–20 |
| MIA | Q3 6:38 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 10–20 |
| NE | Q3 2:04 | 5 | 12 | Opp touchdown | 10–26 |
| MIA | Q3 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–27 |
| NE | Q4 15:00 | 10 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 10–27 |
| MIA | Q4 11:33 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 10–27 |
| NE | Q4 7:21 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–27 |
| MIA | Q4 6:22 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 10–30 |
| NE | Q4 2:08 | 7 | 32 | Turnover | 10–30 |
| MIA | Q4 0:04 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 10–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 12/24 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 5 | 11 | 47 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 11/21 | 87 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 29 | 144 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 2 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deon Dyer | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.41