2001 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Vinny Testaverde

42·36

Bills

Buffalo

QB Rob Johnson

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 45°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NYJ -4.5

Total

36

Model margin

-1.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBills
  • -0.031EPA / play-0.062
  • 41.1%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.011EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.115
  • 10.9%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.16Points / drive1.05
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.0%
  • -0.047EPA / play allowed+0.039

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BUF lead 29–25 since 1999

BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NYJ @ BUF8–35BUF
2025 · W2BUF @ NYJ30–10BUF
2024 · W17NYJ @ BUF14–40BUF
2024 · W6BUF @ NYJ23–20BUF
2023 · W11NYJ @ BUF6–32BUF
2023 · W1BUF @ NYJ16–22NYJ
2022 · W14NYJ @ BUF12–20BUF
2022 · W9BUF @ NYJ17–20NYJ

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–BUF
NYJQ1 15:0000Turnover0–0
BUFQ1 14:5528Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 14:15549Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 12:0632Turnover13–0
NYJQ1 11:1914Touchdown14–0
BUFQ1 11:13775Touchdown14–6
NYJQ1 8:10846Punt20–6
BUFQ1 3:301-7Opp touchdown21–6
NYJQ1 3:2700Opp touchdown21–6
BUFQ1 3:27426Punt21–6
NYJQ1 0:4833Punt21–6
BUFQ2 14:39839Field goal21–9
NYJQ2 10:34980Touchdown28–9
BUFQ2 5:49860Touchdown28–15
NYJQ2 1:18748End of half28–15
BUFQ3 15:00374Touchdown28–22
NYJQ3 13:55412Punt28–22
BUFQ3 12:0436Punt28–22
NYJQ3 10:26523Punt28–22
BUFQ3 6:405-6Punt28–22
NYJQ3 4:52565Touchdown35–22
BUFQ3 2:5020Opp touchdown42–22
NYJQ3 1:4600Opp touchdown42–22
BUFQ3 1:461358Turnover42–22
NYJQ4 11:1478Punt42–22
BUFQ4 5:33554Touchdown42–29
NYJQ4 4:323-2Punt42–29
BUFQ4 3:251984Touchdown42–36
NYJQ4 0:071-1End of half42–36

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vinny Testaverde15/2517320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin261355.22
Laveranues Coles2157.50
LaMont Jordan252.50
Vinny Testaverde1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Laveranues Coles56770
Wayne Chrebet24490
Anthony Becht34211
Curtis Martin22180
Matt Hatchette0300
Kevin Swayne0200
LaMont Jordan11-10

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Van Pelt23/4126831
Rob Johnson3/45711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry191135.90
Rob Johnson3279.00
Alex Van Pelt284.00
Sammy Morris242.00
Eric Moulds1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Moulds5111071
Peerless Price4111031
Jay Riemersma45351
Travis Henry1150
Sheldon Jackson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.95
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.09