Closing spread
NYJ -4.5
Total
36
Model margin
-1.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.062
- 41.1%Success rate39.3%
- +0.011EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.115
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 37.4%Third-down rate34.4%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.16Points / drive1.05
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed+0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. BUF are 29-25 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 15/25 | 173 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 26 | 135 | 5.2 | 2 |
| Laveranues Coles | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 5 | 6 | 77 | 0 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 2 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Van Pelt | 23/41 | 268 | 3 | 1 |
| Rob Johnson | 3/4 | 57 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 19 | 113 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 5 | 11 | 107 | 1 |
| Peerless Price | 4 | 11 | 103 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Travis Henry | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.95
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.09