2001 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

27·25

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

NO -5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.068EPA / play-0.195
  • 38.2%Success rate35.9%
  • +0.007EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.203EPA / rush-0.247
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.0%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 52.3%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 1.58Points / drive0.78
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.009EPA / play allowed+0.016

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
CARQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:48936Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:4110Turnover0–0
NOQ1 9:36212Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 8:572-11Turnover7–0
NOQ1 7:57521Field goal10–0
CARQ1 5:3967Punt10–0
NOQ1 3:04826Punt10–0
CARQ2 14:3810Turnover10–0
NOQ2 14:31428Touchdown17–0
CARQ2 12:4931Punt17–0
NOQ2 11:443-1Turnover17–0
CARQ2 10:2848Turnover on downs17–0
NOQ2 8:0939Punt17–0
CARQ2 6:48616Field goal17–3
NOQ2 3:59619Punt17–3
CARQ2 1:34447Field goal17–6
NOQ2 1:02523Punt17–6
CARQ2 0:1700End of half17–6
NOQ3 15:00328Turnover17–6
CARQ3 13:18416Punt17–6
NOQ3 11:2334Punt17–6
CARQ3 9:50534Punt17–6
CARQ3 6:35415Touchdown17–12
NOQ3 4:34858Field goal20–12
CARQ3 0:06822Punt20–12
NOQ4 11:05616Punt20–12
CARQ4 8:431161Touchdown20–18
NOQ4 3:4236Opp touchdown20–25
CARQ4 1:4800Opp touchdown20–25
NOQ4 1:481573Touchdown27–25

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Brooks14/4018021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams311474.71
Aaron Brooks7497.00
Deuce McAllister122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Horn410780
Cameron Cleeland34382
Ricky Williams47310
Willie Jackson210250
Robert Wilson1280
Albert Connell0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke21/3919621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Biakabutuka13302.30
Richard Huntley420.50
Chris Weinke320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Wesley Walls58611
Tim Biakabutuka35580
Donald Hayes711441
Steve Smith12110
Muhsin Muhammad2680
Isaac Byrd1460

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.58