Closing spread
NO -5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.195
- 38.2%Success rate35.9%
- +0.007EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.247
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.0%
- 38.8%Third-down rate30.3%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.58Points / drive0.78
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.009EPA / play allowed+0.016
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 14/40 | 180 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 31 | 147 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 4 | 10 | 78 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 3 | 4 | 38 | 2 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 10 | 25 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 21/39 | 196 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Biakabutuka | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Walls | 5 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Tim Biakabutuka | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 7 | 11 | 44 | 1 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58