Closing spread
SD -3
Total
36
Model margin
+4.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
NE lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NE are 11-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 50 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 9:56 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| NE | Q1 8:21 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 5:19 | 9 | 50 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:00 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NE | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q2 14:29 | 10 | 54 | Missed field goal | 3–3 |
| NE | Q2 8:29 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–9 |
| LAC | Q2 3:55 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 6–9 |
| NE | Q2 0:29 | 3 | 51 | Missed field goal | 6–9 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 6–9 |
| NE | Q3 13:57 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 6–9 |
| LAC | Q3 11:27 | 5 | 78 | Touchdown | 13–9 |
| NE | Q3 9:43 | 12 | 60 | Touchdown | 13–16 |
| LAC | Q3 4:20 | 9 | 16 | Punt | 13–16 |
| NE | Q3 0:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 13–16 |
| LAC | Q4 14:08 | 9 | 24 | Touchdown | 19–16 |
| NE | Q4 10:00 | 4 | -19 | Opp touchdown | 26–16 |
| LAC | Q4 8:48 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 26–16 |
| NE | Q4 8:48 | 14 | 69 | Field goal | 26–19 |
| LAC | Q4 3:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 26–19 |
| NE | Q4 2:10 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 26–26 |
| LAC | Q4 0:36 | 2 | 38 | Missed field goal | 26–26 |
| LAC | OT | 3 | 5 | Punt | 26–26 |
| NE | OT | 6 | 14 | Field goal | 26–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 33/54 | 364 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 15 | 36 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 11 | 15 | 117 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 7 | 14 | 110 | 1 |
| David Patten | 7 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
6.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.