Closing spread
SF -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.062
- 45.1%Success rate39.3%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.193
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- 44.9%Third-down rate40.9%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
- 1.93Points / drive1.45
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 9–9 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. ATL are 8-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 27/41 | 332 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 12 | 78 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 9 | 14 | 183 | 3 |
| Tai Streets | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 19/36 | 268 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 20 | 50 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Jefferson | 6 | 12 | 74 | 0 |
| Alge Crumpler | 2 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 4 | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 2 | 47 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.65