Closing spread
NO -8
Total
42
Model margin
+2.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.068
- 39.3%Success rate38.2%
- +0.029EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.203
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- 40.9%Third-down rate38.8%
- 42.1%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 1.45Points / drive1.58
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.060EPA / play allowed+0.009
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 14/20 | 187 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 22 | 83 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alge Crumpler | 5 | 5 | 78 | 1 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 4 | 67 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Feely | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 23/39 | 249 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 21 | 51 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 5 | 6 | 74 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 9 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 5 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 1 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.40