2001 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

20·13

Saints

New Orleans

QB Aaron Brooks

Louisiana Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -8

Total

42

Model margin

+2.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • -0.062EPA / play-0.068
  • 39.3%Success rate38.2%
  • +0.029EPA / dropback+0.007
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.203
  • 8.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 40.9%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 42.1%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.58
  • 2.6%Turnover rate3.1%
  • +0.060EPA / play allowed+0.009

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:00376Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 13:0952Turnover7–0
ATLQ1 10:25831Field goal10–0
NOQ1 4:511059Field goal10–3
ATLQ2 13:15630Turnover10–3
NOQ2 9:39963Touchdown10–10
ATLQ2 4:56842Turnover on downs10–10
NOQ2 1:06522Punt10–10
ATLQ2 0:1112End of half10–10
NOQ3 15:00420Punt10–10
ATLQ3 12:34317Turnover10–10
NOQ3 10:573-7Missed field goal10–10
ATLQ3 9:1932Punt10–10
NOQ3 8:223-5Punt10–10
ATLQ3 6:2634Punt10–10
NOQ3 5:2935Punt10–10
ATLQ3 4:033-2Punt10–10
NOQ3 2:0849Punt10–10
ATLQ3 0:0000Touchdown10–10
ATLQ4 15:00451Touchdown17–10
NOQ4 12:5330Punt17–10
ATLQ4 11:4239Punt17–10
NOQ4 9:03525Turnover on downs17–10
ATLQ4 7:05835Field goal20–10
NOQ4 2:341259Field goal20–13
ATLQ4 0:2600End of half20–13
NOQ4 0:23424End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler14/2018721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Smith22833.80
Chris Chandler393.00
Rodney Thomas242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alge Crumpler55781
Shawn Jefferson34671
Terance Mathis24280
Maurice Smith22100
Brian Finneran1270
Reggie Kelly0100
Brian Kozlowski0100
Jay Feely11-20

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Brooks23/3924911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams21512.40
Aaron Brooks3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joe Horn56740
Ricky Williams99650
Willie Jackson511460
Robert Wilson12240
Cameron Cleeland12191
Deuce McAllister13160
Albert Connell1450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.40