Closing spread
JAX -9
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.282
- 39.3%Success rate40.8%
- -0.032EPA / dropback-0.233
- -0.115EPA / rush-0.375
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- 34.4%Third-down rate34.6%
- 45.4%Red-zone TD rate26.3%
- 1.05Points / drive0.28
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.039EPA / play allowed-0.021
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 10–8 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.9 points. JAX are 7-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:33 | 8 | 24 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 5:35 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 4:40 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 1:53 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q2 14:52 | 4 | 30 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q2 13:01 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q2 9:31 | 11 | 52 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q2 2:58 | 8 | 48 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| BUF | Q2 0:51 | 3 | 22 | End of half | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 76 | Opp touchdown | 9–1 |
| BUF | Q3 12:06 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 16–1 |
| JAX | Q3 7:01 | 15 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 16–1 |
| BUF | Q4 14:31 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 16–1 |
| JAX | Q4 10:03 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 16–1 |
| BUF | Q4 7:36 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 16–1 |
| JAX | Q4 5:15 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 16–4 |
| BUF | Q4 3:54 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 19–4 |
| JAX | Q4 1:03 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 19–4 |
| BUF | Q4 0:44 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 19–4 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 23/30 | 238 | 1 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 16/26 | 150 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stacey Mack | 15 | 84 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 27 | 63 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 5 | 60 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 5 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 6 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 |
| Keenan McCardell | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 5 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Damon Jones | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Sean Dawkins | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Elvis Joseph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.92