Closing spread
IND -10.5
Total
48
Model margin
-0.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.005
- 41.5%Success rate45.6%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.6%
- 41.6%Third-down rate41.4%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.32Points / drive1.62
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 43 | Missed field goal | 6–0 |
| NE | Q1 10:43 | 1 | 29 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 10:35 | 9 | 47 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| NE | Q1 5:44 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 7–3 |
| IND | Q1 3:24 | 5 | 74 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| NE | Q1 0:33 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 7–3 |
| IND | Q2 12:16 | 7 | 17 | Punt | 13–3 |
| NE | Q2 8:56 | 1 | 91 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| IND | Q2 8:56 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 20–3 |
| NE | Q2 7:21 | 1 | 60 | Touchdown | 21–3 |
| IND | Q2 7:11 | 6 | 25 | Turnover | 21–3 |
| NE | Q2 3:45 | 6 | 24 | Touchdown | 28–3 |
| IND | Q2 1:17 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 28–6 |
| NE | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–6 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 28–6 |
| IND | Q3 13:25 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| NE | Q3 8:20 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 31–14 |
| IND | Q3 4:34 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 31–17 |
| NE | Q3 1:31 | 5 | 25 | Touchdown | 38–17 |
| IND | Q4 14:02 | 7 | 57 | Turnover | 38–17 |
| NE | Q4 11:02 | 18 | 65 | Turnover on downs | 38–17 |
| IND | Q4 0:51 | 2 | 35 | End of half | 38–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/20 | 202 | 3 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1/1 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 8 | 10 | 120 | 1 |
| David Patten | 4 | 5 | 117 | 2 |
| Charles Johnson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/34 | 335 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 30 | 143 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 8 | 11 | 157 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Trevor Insley | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.02