Closing spread
IND -10.5
Total
48
Model margin
-0.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.005
- 41.5%Success rate45.6%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.6%
- 41.6%Third-down rate41.4%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate66.3%
- 1.32Points / drive1.62
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed+0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 16/20 | 202 | 3 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1/1 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 8 | 10 | 120 | 1 |
| David Patten | 4 | 5 | 117 | 2 |
| Charles Johnson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/34 | 335 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 30 | 143 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 35 | 17.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 8 | 11 | 157 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Trevor Insley | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.02