Closing spread
SD -7.5
Total
39
Model margin
+6.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.8 points. SD are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 24/37 | 310 | 1 | 1 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 2/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Travis Henry | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peerless Price | 8 | 10 | 151 | 1 |
| Jay Riemersma | 4 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Eric Moulds | 7 | 12 | 70 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Germany | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.3%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.95
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+6.15
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.