Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+14.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.167EPA / play+0.300
- 40.0%Success rate41.8%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.597
- -0.360EPA / rush-0.263
- 5.5%Explosive rate14.5%
- -6.21CPOE+8.14
- 25.0%Third-down rate33.3%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.39Points / drive3.07
- 3.6%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.8 points. BUF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
84.1%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+12.48
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+14.94