2026 · Week 3

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

16·24

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

Highmark Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BUF -7

Total

50.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBills
  • -0.231EPA / play+0.175
  • 35.9%Success rate49.0%
  • -0.210EPA / dropback+0.296
  • -0.262EPA / rush+0.013
  • 6.8%Explosive rate12.5%
  • -4.44CPOE+3.91
  • 34.6%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate71.7%
  • 1.17Points / drive3.13
  • 3.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W16BUF @ LAC24–22BUF
2020 · W12LAC @ BUF17–27BUF
2018 · W2LAC @ BUF31–20CHARGERS
2017 · W11BUF @ LAC24–54CHARGERS
2014 · W3SD @ BUF22–10CHARGERS
2011 · W14BUF @ SD10–37CHARGERS
2008 · W7SD @ BUF14–23BUF
2006 · W13SD @ BUF24–21CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–BUF
BUFQ1 15:0014Turnover0–0
LACQ1 14:44932Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 10:3354Punt7–0
LACQ1 7:2731Punt7–0
BUFQ1 5:58610Turnover7–0
LACQ1 3:23515Field goal10–0
BUFQ1 0:3423Turnover10–0
LACQ2 14:491063Missed field goal10–0
BUFQ2 10:22960Field goal10–3
LACQ2 6:02412Punt10–3
BUFQ2 4:051080Touchdown10–10
LACQ2 0:16330End of half10–10
LACQ3 15:001596Field goal13–10
BUFQ3 6:12446Turnover13–10
LACQ3 3:50518Punt13–10
BUFQ3 1:3643Turnover13–10
LACQ4 14:5235Turnover13–10
BUFQ4 13:251583Touchdown13–17
LACQ4 7:3567Turnover on downs13–17
BUFQ4 5:08645Touchdown13–24
LACQ4 3:13669Field goal16–24
BUFQ4 1:56313End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert20/3422611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Omarion Hampton15563.70
Keaton Mitchell8526.50
Justin Herbert4174.30
Kimani Vidal166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre Harris67760
Ladd McConkey45660
Quentin Johnston36400
Kimani Vidal13140
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100
Oronde Gadsden II0300
Omarion Hampton0100
Keaton Mitchell33-51

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen16/2620402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook241546.41
Josh Allen8222.82
Dawson Knox100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore610670
Ty Johnson44500
Dalton Kincaid23380
Keon Coleman12370
Khalil Shakir1360
Dawson Knox1150
Josh Allen1110
James Cook0100
Jackson Hawes0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.1%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.2%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+6.10