Closing spread
SD -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BUF | Q1 12:30 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 6:46 | 12 | 93 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| BUF | Q1 0:21 | 8 | 49 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| LAC | Q2 10:49 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| BUF | Q2 9:25 | 7 | 38 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 5:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| BUF | Q2 3:33 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–13 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q3 12:45 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| BUF | Q3 6:28 | 10 | 73 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q3 0:33 | 4 | 30 | Punt | 14–20 |
| BUF | Q4 13:06 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 14–20 |
| LAC | Q4 9:15 | 8 | 49 | Turnover | 14–20 |
| BUF | Q4 6:05 | 6 | 43 | Field goal | 14–23 |
| LAC | Q4 3:17 | 2 | -7 | Turnover | 14–23 |
| BUF | Q4 3:02 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 14–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Edwards | 25/30 | 261 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Fred Jackson | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Trent Edwards | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.66
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.