2023 · Week 16

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

24·22

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Easton Stick

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

BUF -13

Total

44.5

Model margin

-5.0est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChargers
  • +0.097EPA / play-0.070
  • 48.4%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.018
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.242
  • 8.5%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +4.96CPOE-1.84
  • 49.7%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 68.0%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
  • 2.33Points / drive1.75
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LAC are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3LAC @ BUF16–24BUF
2020 · W12LAC @ BUF17–27BUF
2018 · W2LAC @ BUF31–20CHARGERS
2017 · W11BUF @ LAC24–54CHARGERS
2014 · W3SD @ BUF22–10CHARGERS
2011 · W14BUF @ SD10–37CHARGERS
2008 · W7SD @ BUF14–23BUF
2006 · W13SD @ BUF24–21CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–LAC
BUFQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:121390Field goal0–3
BUFQ1 6:32525Punt0–3
LACQ1 3:306-2Punt0–3
LACQ1 0:04427Touchdown0–10
BUFQ2 13:49625Punt0–10
LACQ2 10:4337Punt6–10
BUFQ2 9:12157Touchdown7–10
LACQ2 9:02822Punt7–10
BUFQ2 4:29863Touchdown14–10
LACQ2 0:3816End of half14–10
LACQ3 15:00510Punt14–10
BUFQ3 12:4623Turnover14–10
LACQ3 12:08841Field goal14–13
BUFQ3 7:221075Touchdown21–13
LACQ3 1:281046Field goal21–16
BUFQ4 12:3652Punt21–16
LACQ4 9:16626Field goal21–19
BUFQ4 7:1915Turnover21–19
LACQ4 7:1031Field goal21–22
BUFQ4 5:261264Field goal24–22
LACQ4 0:283-4End of half24–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen15/2123711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook20703.50
Leonard Fournette5204.00
Josh Allen5153.02

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gabe Davis461301
Khalil Shakir33450
Stefon Diggs58290
Dawson Knox22260
Dalton Kincaid1270

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Easton Stick23/3321500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler15654.30
Easton Stick7253.61
Derius Davis188.00
Isaiah Spiller210.50
Quentin Johnston111.00
Joshua Kelley1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer58470
Gerald Everett78420
Alex Erickson22310
Quentin Johnston25290
Stone Smartt11230
Austin Ekeler34210
Jalen Guyton12120
Derius Davis1160
Isaiah Spiller1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -133.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.5%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.0%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.93
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-4.95