Closing spread
BUF -13
Total
44.5
Model margin
-5.0est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.070
- 48.4%Success rate41.4%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.018
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.242
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.9%
- +4.96CPOE-1.84
- 49.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 2.33Points / drive1.75
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.8 points. LAC are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/21 | 237 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 4 | 6 | 130 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 5 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Stick | 23/33 | 215 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Easton Stick | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 7 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.0%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.93
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-4.95