Closing spread
SD -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.8 points. SD are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 13/34 | 176 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Johnny White | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 10 | 116 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Caussin | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.