Closing spread
SD -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bills
- OutRian LindellKShoulder· DNP
- OutScott ChandlerTEAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulAaron WilliamsCBCalf· DNP
- ProbableChad RinehartGShoulder· Limited
- ProbableGeorge WilsonSNeck· Full
- ProbableJairus ByrdSShin· Full
Chargers
- DoubtfulDarrell StuckeySGroin· DNP
- QuestionableDonald ButlerLBFoot· Full
- QuestionableShaun PhillipsLBFoot· Full
- ProbableTakeo SpikesLBBack· DNP
- ProbableBrandyn DombrowskiTFoot· Full
- ProbableCorey LiugetDEFibula· Full
- ProbableLouis VasquezGAnkle· Full
- ProbableNa'il DiggsLBChest· Full
- ProbableNick HardwickCNeck· Full
- ProbableTyronne GreenGHand· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. SD are 7-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | BUF–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| BUF | Q1 7:52 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:49 | 10 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–13 |
| BUF | Q2 14:16 | 11 | 34 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LAC | Q2 9:10 | 5 | 46 | Field goal | 0–16 |
| BUF | Q2 6:41 | 7 | 45 | Missed field goal | 0–16 |
| LAC | Q2 3:47 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 0–16 |
| BUF | Q2 1:46 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–16 |
| LAC | Q2 0:59 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–16 |
| BUF | Q2 0:11 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 0–16 |
| BUF | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 60 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| LAC | Q3 11:43 | 3 | -13 | Opp touchdown | 10–16 |
| LAC | Q3 10:11 | 12 | 88 | Touchdown | 10–23 |
| BUF | Q3 4:11 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–30 |
| BUF | Q3 4:02 | 8 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 10–30 |
| LAC | Q3 1:06 | 11 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–37 |
| BUF | Q4 9:01 | 10 | 55 | Turnover on downs | 10–37 |
| LAC | Q4 4:31 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–37 |
| BUF | Q4 2:24 | 5 | 31 | Turnover | 10–37 |
| LAC | Q4 0:50 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 10–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 13/34 | 176 | 0 | 2 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Johnny White | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Johnson | 4 | 10 | 116 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| David Nelson | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Caussin | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.