2017 · Week 11

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Nathan Peterman

24·54

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LAC -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

+8.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapChargers
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.085
  • 39.0%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback+0.191
  • -0.135EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.28CPOE+0.86
  • 42.2%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.47Points / drive1.87
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LAC are 7-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3LAC @ BUF16–24BUF
2023 · W16BUF @ LAC24–22BUF
2020 · W12LAC @ BUF17–27BUF
2018 · W2LAC @ BUF31–20CHARGERS
2014 · W3SD @ BUF22–10CHARGERS
2011 · W14BUF @ SD10–37CHARGERS
2008 · W7SD @ BUF14–23BUF
2006 · W13SD @ BUF24–21CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–LAC
BUFQ1 15:00634Opp touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 11:4432Turnover0–7
LACQ1 10:3733Missed field goal0–7
BUFQ1 9:50264Touchdown7–7
LACQ1 9:021159Field goal7–10
BUFQ1 3:57516Turnover7–10
LACQ1 1:09646Touchdown7–17
BUFQ2 12:5310Turnover7–17
LACQ2 12:43415Touchdown7–24
BUFQ2 10:3235Punt7–24
LACQ2 9:09866Field goal7–27
BUFQ2 4:5536Punt7–27
LACQ2 3:46557Touchdown7–34
BUFQ2 1:09219Turnover7–34
LACQ2 0:35433Field goal7–37
LACQ3 15:001065Field goal7–40
BUFQ3 10:21751Field goal10–40
LACQ3 7:34513Punt10–40
BUFQ3 4:40942Opp touchdown10–47
BUFQ3 1:511075Touchdown17–47
LACQ4 13:51958Touchdown17–54
BUFQ4 7:571175Touchdown24–54
LACQ4 4:4937Punt24–54
BUFQ4 3:4234Punt24–54
LACQ4 2:46210End of half24–54

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor15/2515810
Nathan Peterman6/146605

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy131148.81
Tyrod Taylor4389.51
Travaris Cadet3175.70
Nathan Peterman242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones47680
Travaris Cadet66390
Deonte Thompson38360
Charles Clay34270
Kelvin Benjamin11200
LeSean McCoy11121
Nick O'Leary1380
Brandon Tate1570
Andre Holmes1370
Patrick DiMarco0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers20/3225120
Kellen Clemens5/53300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon20804.01
Austin Ekeler6406.71
Travis Benjamin177.00
Keenan Allen133.00
Andre Williams221.00
Kellen Clemens3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen12131592
Mike Williams58380
Hunter Henry25250
Travis Benjamin11210
Austin Ekeler22180
Tyrell Williams11110
Sean McGrath11100
Jeff Cumberland1120
Antonio Gates0200
Melvin Gordon0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +72.9%5.6%7.1%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.0%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.07