Closing spread
LAC -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+8.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.085
- 39.0%Success rate44.9%
- -0.024EPA / dropback+0.191
- -0.135EPA / rush-0.082
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.28CPOE+0.86
- 42.2%Third-down rate40.7%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.47Points / drive1.87
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.8 points. LAC are 7-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 15/25 | 158 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 6/14 | 66 | 0 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 13 | 114 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 4 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 6 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 3 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Nick O'Leary | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 20/32 | 251 | 2 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 5/5 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 20 | 80 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kellen Clemens | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 12 | 13 | 159 | 2 |
| Mike Williams | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Sean McGrath | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.0%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.58
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.07