2020 · Week 12

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

17·27

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · astroturf · 48°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BUF -4.5

Total

51

Model margin

+4.0est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBills
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.169
  • 43.8%Success rate50.4%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.298
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +0.07CPOE+6.29
  • 45.1%Third-down rate49.9%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.78
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3LAC @ BUF16–24BUF
2023 · W16BUF @ LAC24–22BUF
2018 · W2LAC @ BUF31–20CHARGERS
2017 · W11BUF @ LAC24–54CHARGERS
2014 · W3SD @ BUF22–10CHARGERS
2011 · W14BUF @ SD10–37CHARGERS
2008 · W7SD @ BUF14–23BUF
2006 · W13SD @ BUF24–21CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–BUF
LACQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
BUFQ1 14:25516Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 12:261379Touchdown6–7
BUFQ1 6:3135Punt6–7
LACQ1 4:1332Punt6–7
BUFQ1 3:2541Punt6–7
LACQ1 1:21620Punt6–7
BUFQ2 14:05861Touchdown6–14
LACQ2 9:44512Punt6–14
BUFQ2 7:311150Field goal6–17
LACQ2 2:16733Punt6–17
BUFQ2 0:1200End of half6–17
BUFQ3 15:001253Touchdown6–24
LACQ3 9:021067Touchdown14–24
BUFQ3 4:51411Punt14–24
LACQ3 2:11739Turnover on downs14–24
BUFQ4 14:53219Turnover14–24
LACQ4 14:06716Field goal17–24
BUFQ4 10:16244Turnover17–24
LACQ4 9:463-2Punt17–24
BUFQ4 8:1448Turnover17–24
LACQ4 6:1334Turnover17–24
BUFQ4 5:17665Field goal17–27
LACQ4 3:261597End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert31/5231611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler14443.10
Joshua Kelley7355.01
Troymaine Pope1-1-1.00
Justin Herbert2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Ekeler1116850
Hunter Henry710670
Tyron Johnson24630
Keenan Allen410401
Jalen Guyton34330
Mike Williams35260
Troymaine Pope1120
Donald Parham0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen18/2415711
Cole Beasley1/12010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devin Singletary11827.50
Zack Moss9596.60
Josh Allen9323.61
Isaiah McKenzie1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gabe Davis34791
Stefon Diggs79390
Cole Beasley24250
Devin Singletary33200
Zack Moss2290
Lee Smith1130
Dawson Knox1121

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.05