Closing spread
BUF -4.5
Total
51
Model margin
+4.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.169
- 43.8%Success rate50.4%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.298
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.7%
- +0.07CPOE+6.29
- 45.1%Third-down rate49.9%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 2.02Points / drive2.78
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.8 points. BUF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 31/52 | 316 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Troymaine Pope | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 16 | 85 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 2 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 10 | 40 | 1 |
| Jalen Guyton | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 18/24 | 157 | 1 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 1/1 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 11 | 82 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Davis | 3 | 4 | 79 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Lee Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.78
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.05