2018 · Week 2

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

31·20

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

New Era Field · outdoors · a_turf · 83°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LAC -7.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.1est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Bills

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBills
  • +0.126EPA / play-0.140
  • 47.0%Success rate37.8%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback-0.137
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.143
  • 12.5%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +3.54CPOE-7.12
  • 39.7%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 70.7%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.26
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 7–6 since 1999

BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3LAC @ BUF16–24BUF
2023 · W16BUF @ LAC24–22BUF
2020 · W12LAC @ BUF17–27BUF
2017 · W11BUF @ LAC24–54CHARGERS
2014 · W3SD @ BUF22–10CHARGERS
2011 · W14BUF @ SD10–37CHARGERS
2008 · W7SD @ BUF14–23BUF
2006 · W13SD @ BUF24–21CHARGERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–BUF
LACQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:4730Punt0–0
LACQ1 10:53338Touchdown7–0
BUFQ1 9:2630Punt7–0
LACQ1 7:42661Touchdown14–0
BUFQ1 4:181246Field goal14–3
LACQ2 13:38575Touchdown21–3
BUFQ2 10:4337Punt21–3
LACQ2 8:411286Touchdown28–3
BUFQ2 1:55557Field goal28–6
LACQ2 0:47215End of half28–6
BUFQ3 15:00875Touchdown28–13
LACQ3 11:0644Punt28–13
BUFQ3 8:54620Punt28–13
LACQ3 5:333-6Punt28–13
BUFQ3 3:5331Turnover28–13
LACQ3 2:4536Punt28–13
BUFQ3 0:23612Punt28–13
LACQ4 12:39847Punt28–13
BUFQ4 7:1110Turnover28–13
LACQ4 7:00615Field goal31–13
BUFQ4 3:501145Touchdown31–20
LACQ4 0:3800End of half31–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers23/2725630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler11777.00
Melvin Gordon9283.11
Philip Rivers351.70
J.J. Jones100.00
Detrez Newsome100.00
Geno Smith1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen68670
Virgil Green33550
Tyrell Williams33480
Melvin Gordon67382
Mike Williams22271
Austin Ekeler33210
Antonio Gates0100

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen17/3221512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy9394.30
Josh Allen8324.00
Chris Ivory273.51
Marcus Murphy362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones23630
Robert Foster23300
LeSean McCoy44290
Charles Clay23290
Patrick DiMarco11240
Kelvin Benjamin23191
Logan Thomas1170
Marcus Murphy1570
Jason Croom2470
Chris Ivory0100
Andre Holmes0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.08