Closing spread
LAC -7.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.1est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play-0.140
- 47.0%Success rate37.8%
- +0.211EPA / dropback-0.137
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.143
- 12.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- +3.54CPOE-7.12
- 39.7%Third-down rate32.3%
- 70.7%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 2.31Points / drive1.26
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.8 points. BUF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 23/27 | 256 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 77 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Philip Rivers | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| J.J. Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Detrez Newsome | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 8 | 67 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 7 | 38 | 2 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 17/32 | 215 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Marcus Murphy | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 2 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
| Robert Foster | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcus Murphy | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Jason Croom | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Holmes | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.08