Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutMelvin IngramLBHamstring· DNP
- OutRyan MathewsRBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJahleel AddaeSHamstring· Full
- QuestionableJeremiah AttaochuLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableKeenan AllenWRGroin· Limited
- ProbableAntonio GatesTEHamstring· Full
- ProbableBrandon FlowersCBGroin· Full
- ProbableChris DavisCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableCorey LiugetDEAnkle· Full
- ProbableJohnnie TroutmanGBack· Full
- ProbableRich OhrnbergerGBack· Full
Bills
- OutJonathan MeeksSNeck· DNP
- OutRandell JohnsonLBKnee· DNP
- DoubtfulKeith RiversLBGroin· Limited
- ProbableChris WilliamsGBack· Limited
- ProbableRobert WoodsWRAnkle· Limited
- ProbableStefan CharlesDTHip· Limited
- ProbableLee SmithTEToe· Full
- ProbableSammy WatkinsWRRibs· Full
Win probability
- Bills
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–6 since 1999
BUF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. BUF are 6-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–BUF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:03 | 7 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| BUF | Q1 9:45 | 12 | 27 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:09 | 18 | 87 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q2 10:18 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 8:27 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 10–0 |
| BUF | Q2 5:54 | 7 | 65 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 2:56 | 6 | 61 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| BUF | Q2 0:21 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 13–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| BUF | Q3 7:31 | 12 | 67 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q3 1:16 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 20–10 |
| BUF | Q4 14:21 | 4 | -9 | Punt | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 12:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 20–10 |
| BUF | Q4 10:53 | 8 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 8:23 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–10 |
| BUF | Q4 6:44 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 5:06 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 22–10 |
| BUF | Q4 3:28 | 1 | 0 | Safety | 22–10 |
| LAC | Q4 3:23 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 22–10 |
| BUF | Q4 2:20 | 14 | 84 | Turnover on downs | 22–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 23/39 | 238 | 1 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 8 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.67
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.