Closing spread
BUF -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bills
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 7–5 since 1999
BUF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.8 points. BUF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EJ Manuel | 23/39 | 238 | 1 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 0 |
| EJ Manuel | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Jackson | 8 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 5 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 2 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.67
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.