Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
43
Model margin
+0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.044
- 41.5%Success rate42.2%
- +0.059EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.075
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.2%
- 41.6%Third-down rate37.7%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
- 1.32Points / drive1.49
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.038
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 13–10 since 1999
NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 25/38 | 203 | 2 | 4 |
| David Patten | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 12 | 56 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | 31 | 31.0 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 9 | 15 | 86 | 1 |
| David Patten | 5 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Curtis Jackson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 19/30 | 283 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Olandis Gary | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 6 | 6 | 159 | 1 |
| Desmond Clark | 6 | 8 | 94 | 0 |
| Scottie Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Dominguez | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
4.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.41