2001 · Week 7

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

20·31

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -7

Total

43

Model margin

+0.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.044
  • 41.5%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.075
  • 7.6%Explosive rate6.2%
  • 41.6%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 48.0%Red-zone TD rate55.8%
  • 1.32Points / drive1.49
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.038

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 13–10 since 1999

NE have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.4 points. DEN are 12-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsNE @ DEN10–7NE
2023 · W16NE @ DEN26–23NE
2020 · W6DEN @ NE18–12DEN
2017 · W10NE @ DEN41–16NE
2016 · W15NE @ DEN16–3NE
2015 · playoffsNE @ DEN18–20DEN
2015 · W12NE @ DEN24–30DEN
2014 · W9DEN @ NE21–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–DEN
NEQ1 15:001059Field goal3–0
DENQ1 9:0639Punt3–0
NEQ1 6:58459Touchdown10–0
DENQ1 4:57775Touchdown10–7
NEQ1 0:57736Turnover10–7
DENQ2 12:431666Field goal10–10
NEQ2 4:0337Punt10–10
DENQ2 2:2510Turnover10–10
NEQ2 2:10317Touchdown17–10
DENQ2 1:21618Punt17–10
NEQ2 0:091-1End of half17–10
DENQ3 15:0034Turnover17–10
NEQ3 13:3848Field goal20–10
DENQ3 10:59165Touchdown20–17
NEQ3 10:35722Punt20–17
DENQ3 6:45980Touchdown20–24
NEQ3 3:351454Turnover20–24
DENQ4 13:05510Punt20–24
NEQ4 10:33731Turnover20–24
DENQ4 7:55731Punt20–24
NEQ4 3:53522Opp touchdown20–31
DENQ4 2:2400Opp touchdown20–31
NEQ4 2:244-14Turnover20–31
DENQ4 1:243-3End of half20–31

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady25/3820324
David Patten0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith12564.70
Troy Brown13131.00
David Patten11313.00
Kevin Faulk5122.40
J.R. Redmond100.00
Tom Brady2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown915861
David Patten57621
Kevin Faulk45260
Charles Johnson24110
Antowain Smith22110
Curtis Jackson1140
Rod Rutledge0100
J.R. Redmond11-30

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese19/3028322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson14402.91
Olandis Gary10373.70
Eddie Kennison11010.00
Brian Griese4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith661591
Desmond Clark68940
Scottie Montgomery22150
Patrick Hape1100
Eddie Kennison0300
Keith Poole0100
Matt Dominguez0100
Brian Griese11-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

4.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.41