Closing spread
STL -12
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. STL are 15-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 14:08 | 1 | 14 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 13:45 | 5 | 44 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| NO | Q1 10:59 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LA | Q1 7:10 | 7 | 41 | Missed field goal | 3–14 |
| NO | Q1 4:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LA | Q1 2:23 | 10 | 41 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| NO | Q2 13:34 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 6–21 |
| LA | Q2 7:56 | 3 | 23 | Turnover | 6–21 |
| NO | Q2 6:21 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 6–21 |
| LA | Q2 4:48 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–21 |
| NO | Q2 4:36 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 6–21 |
| LA | Q2 3:23 | 8 | 48 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| NO | Q2 1:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–24 |
| LA | Q2 0:33 | 2 | 17 | End of half | 6–24 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 48 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| LA | Q3 14:02 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| NO | Q3 12:57 | 3 | -5 | Field goal | 16–24 |
| LA | Q3 11:39 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 16–24 |
| NO | Q3 11:27 | 5 | 18 | Touchdown | 22–24 |
| LA | Q3 9:27 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 22–24 |
| NO | Q3 8:21 | 2 | 54 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| LA | Q3 7:36 | 3 | 42 | Turnover | 28–24 |
| NO | Q3 6:30 | 4 | 17 | Field goal | 31–24 |
| LA | Q3 3:54 | 4 | 42 | Turnover | 31–24 |
| NO | Q3 1:35 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 31–24 |
| LA | Q4 14:00 | 12 | 87 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| NO | Q4 7:20 | 1 | 3 | Turnover | 31–31 |
| LA | Q4 7:02 | 6 | 20 | Turnover | 31–31 |
| NO | Q4 4:00 | 7 | 17 | Field goal | 34–31 |
| LA | Q4 0:01 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 34–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 20/31 | 254 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 17 | 77 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 8 | 12 | 121 | 2 |
| Willie Jackson | 2 | 2 | 52 | 1 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.63
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.