Closing spread
CHI -2
Total
39
Model margin
+0.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.063
- 45.1%Success rate39.4%
- +0.174EPA / dropback-0.033
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.099
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- 44.9%Third-down rate33.3%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.93Points / drive1.28
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.146
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 9–8 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/29 | 269 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 4 | 4 | 105 | 1 |
| Terrell Owens | 6 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Terry Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 25/31 | 166 | 3 | 1 |
| Jim Miller | 5/16 | 63 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Thomas | 27 | 127 | 4.7 | 1 |
| James Allen | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jim Miller | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez White | 7 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Marty Booker | 9 | 14 | 67 | 0 |
| Fred Baxter | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| James Allen | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| David Terrell | 3 | 8 | 19 | 2 |
| John Davis | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.13