2001 · Week 7

Final / OT

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

31·37

Bears

Chicago

QB Jim Miller

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 46°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CHI -2

Total

39

Model margin

+0.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Bears wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapBears
  • +0.097EPA / play-0.063
  • 45.1%Success rate39.4%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback-0.033
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.099
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 44.9%Third-down rate33.3%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.93Points / drive1.28
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.146

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 9–8 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 7-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17CHI @ SF38–42SF
2024 · W14CHI @ SF13–38SF
2022 · W1SF @ CHI10–19CHI
2021 · W8SF @ CHI33–22SF
2018 · W16CHI @ SF14–9CHI
2017 · W13SF @ CHI15–14SF
2016 · W13SF @ CHI6–26CHI
2015 · W13SF @ CHI26–20SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:321058Missed field goal0–0
CHIQ1 8:162-8Opp touchdown7–0
SFQ1 7:3000Opp touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 7:30613Punt7–0
SFQ1 5:331178Touchdown14–0
CHIQ1 1:0338Punt14–0
SFQ2 14:4534Punt14–0
CHIQ2 12:47848Turnover14–0
SFQ2 9:41629Turnover14–0
CHIQ2 7:01716Punt14–0
SFQ2 3:3158Safety14–2
CHIQ2 1:50740Touchdown14–9
SFQ2 0:481-1End of half14–9
SFQ3 15:00371Touchdown21–9
CHIQ3 13:24935Opp touchdown27–9
SFQ3 8:1800Opp touchdown28–9
CHIQ3 8:18866Touchdown28–16
SFQ3 4:58425Punt28–16
CHIQ3 1:4038Punt28–16
SFQ3 0:101471Field goal31–16
CHIQ4 7:47951Touchdown31–23
SFQ4 4:0838Punt31–23
CHIQ4 2:461272Touchdown31–31
SFQ4 0:261-1End of half31–31
SFOT10Opp touchdown31–37

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia21/2926922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Garrison Hearst12463.80
Jeff Garcia7223.10
Kevan Barlow7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrison Hearst441051
Terrell Owens610600
Kevan Barlow22330
J.J. Stokes46290
Eric Johnson22240
Tai Streets11110
Justin Swift1111
Terry Jackson0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews25/3116631
Jim Miller5/166301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Anthony Thomas271274.71
James Allen11515.00
Shane Matthews133.00
Jim Miller1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez White79680
Marty Booker914670
Fred Baxter35290
James Allen33230
David Terrell38192
John Davis22110
Anthony Thomas2390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +22.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.13