Closing spread
SF -8.5
Total
47
Model margin
+8.3est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.101EPA / play+0.097
- 39.1%Success rate45.1%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.001
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- 33.9%Third-down rate44.9%
- 47.0%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 0.89Points / drive1.93
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.8%
- +0.064EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 10–2 since 1999
Meetings average 48.8 points. SF are 4-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 8/20 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 2/4 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Foster | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Desmond Howard | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 2 | 9 | 20 | 0 |
| Bert Emanuel | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Reuben Droughns | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Trejo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 26/35 | 296 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 9 | 10 | 125 | 2 |
| J.J. Stokes | 6 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.28