2001 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

30·14

Bills

Buffalo

QB Rob Johnson

Ralph Wilson Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 54°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

BUF perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bills
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Bills winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBills
  • +0.005EPA / play-0.062
  • 45.6%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.115
  • 10.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 41.4%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 66.3%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.05
  • 3.4%Turnover rate3.0%
  • +0.059EPA / play allowed+0.039

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W10BUF @ IND30–20BUF
2021 · W11IND @ BUF41–15IND
2020 · playoffsIND @ BUF24–27BUF
2018 · W7BUF @ IND5–37IND
2017 · W14IND @ BUF7–13BUF
2015 · W1IND @ BUF14–27BUF
2012 · W12BUF @ IND13–20IND
2009 · W17IND @ BUF7–30BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BUF
INDQ1 15:001248Punt0–0
BUFQ1 7:21627Punt0–0
INDQ1 4:513-1Punt0–0
BUFQ1 3:132-1Turnover0–0
INDQ1 2:32639Touchdown7–0
BUFQ2 14:55520Punt7–0
INDQ2 12:4231Opp touchdown7–7
BUFQ2 11:3900Opp touchdown7–7
INDQ2 11:39463Touchdown14–7
BUFQ2 9:18511Punt14–7
INDQ2 6:50620Punt14–7
BUFQ2 3:491-4Turnover14–7
INDQ2 3:4136Field goal17–7
BUFQ2 2:2231Punt17–7
INDQ2 1:4139Punt17–7
BUFQ2 0:33314End of half17–7
BUFQ3 15:00939Missed field goal17–7
INDQ3 10:15756Touchdown24–7
BUFQ3 7:0930Punt24–7
INDQ3 5:56520Punt24–7
BUFQ3 3:11720Turnover on downs24–7
INDQ4 14:44924Field goal27–7
BUFQ4 9:14628Turnover on downs27–7
INDQ4 7:0835Punt27–7
BUFQ4 4:4538Punt27–7
BUFQ4 3:50227Touchdown27–14
INDQ4 3:39615Field goal30–14
BUFQ4 1:07642End of half30–14

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning17/2719910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dominic Rhodes341002.91
Peyton Manning34414.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne24580
Dominic Rhodes46450
Marcus Pollard44401
Marvin Harrison57320
Terrence Wilkins23240
Ken Dilger0200

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rob Johnson17/3317210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry13614.70
Shawn Bryson3155.00
Rob Johnson263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jay Riemersma57461
Eric Moulds45360
Reggie Germany12180
Peerless Price15170
Avion Black11110
Travis Henry0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.95
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.88