Closing spread
IND -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bills
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.005EPA / play-0.062
- 45.6%Success rate39.3%
- +0.055EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.115
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 41.4%Third-down rate34.4%
- 66.3%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.62Points / drive1.05
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.0%
- +0.059EPA / play allowed+0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. BUF are 6-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 17/27 | 199 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 34 | 100 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 2 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 4 | 4 | 40 | 1 |
| Marvin Harrison | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Johnson | 17/33 | 172 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 13 | 61 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rob Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Riemersma | 5 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Eric Moulds | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Reggie Germany | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Avion Black | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Travis Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.95
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.88