2001 · Week 10 · Division

Final / OT

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

25·22

Panthers

Carolina

QB Chris Weinke

Ericsson Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

43

Model margin

-3.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.097EPA / play-0.195
  • 45.1%Success rate35.9%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback-0.169
  • -0.001EPA / rush-0.247
  • 9.2%Explosive rate7.0%
  • 44.9%Third-down rate30.3%
  • 69.0%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
  • 1.93Points / drive0.78
  • 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.016

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 10–6 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CAR @ SF9–20SF
2022 · W5SF @ CAR37–15SF
2019 · W8CAR @ SF13–51SF
2017 · W1CAR @ SF23–3CAR
2016 · W2SF @ CAR27–46CAR
2013 · playoffsSF @ CAR23–10SF
2013 · W10CAR @ SF10–9CAR
2010 · W7SF @ CAR20–23CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–CAR
SFQ1 15:00631Turnover0–0
CARQ1 11:52754Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 8:1233Punt0–7
CARQ1 7:05617Punt0–7
SFQ1 4:24623Punt0–7
CARQ1 0:1830Punt0–7
SFQ1 0:0000Touchdown0–7
SFQ2 15:001061Touchdown7–7
CARQ2 9:57771Field goal7–10
SFQ2 5:22512Punt7–10
CARQ2 2:48414Punt7–10
SFQ2 1:3638Punt7–10
CARQ2 0:0900End of half7–10
CARQ3 15:00519Punt7–10
SFQ3 12:4734Punt7–10
CARQ3 11:2142Field goal7–13
SFQ3 10:26879Touchdown14–13
CARQ3 6:53731Punt14–13
SFQ3 3:05825Turnover14–13
CARQ4 14:50546Touchdown14–19
SFQ4 13:03411Punt14–19
CARQ4 10:56513Punt14–19
SFQ4 9:2139Punt14–19
CARQ4 6:38410Punt14–19
SFQ4 5:08624Turnover14–19
CARQ4 2:4934Field goal14–22
SFQ4 1:521161Touchdown22–22
CARQ4 0:0100End of half22–22
SFOT866Field goal25–22

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia34/5430532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Garrison Hearst17925.40
Kevan Barlow7192.70
Jeff Garcia111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens714991
J.J. Stokes812722
Tai Streets48440
Eric Johnson34340
Garrison Hearst67210
Kevan Barlow23130
Terry Jackson1140

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Weinke22/4117720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Richard Huntley13634.80
Steve Smith13939.00
Chris Weinke1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Hayes57540
Isaac Byrd46310
Richard Huntley57311
Wesley Walls24301
Muhsin Muhammad1490
Patrick Jeffers0100
Steve Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%3.1%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.36
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.80