Closing spread
SF -7
Total
43
Model margin
-3.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.195
- 45.1%Success rate35.9%
- +0.174EPA / dropback-0.169
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.247
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- 44.9%Third-down rate30.3%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate45.8%
- 1.93Points / drive0.78
- 1.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed+0.016
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 10–6 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 48 points. CAR are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 34/54 | 305 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 17 | 92 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 7 | 14 | 99 | 1 |
| J.J. Stokes | 8 | 12 | 72 | 2 |
| Tai Streets | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 6 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 22/41 | 177 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Hayes | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 5 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Wesley Walls | 2 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.36
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.80