Closing spread
MIA -5
Total
36
Model margin
+0.9est.
BUF perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bills
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.062
- 41.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.068EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.115
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- 41.1%Third-down rate34.4%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.31Points / drive1.05
- 3.4%Turnover rate3.0%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed+0.039
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 35–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. BUF are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 17/30 | 218 | 3 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Minor | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 17 | 37 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ray Lucas | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 8 | 10 | 116 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 5 | 10 | 101 | 2 |
| Jed Weaver | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Travis Minor | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Van Pelt | 21/34 | 309 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 19 | 97 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Shawn Bryson | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alex Van Pelt | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Moulds | 6 | 8 | 196 | 2 |
| Jay Riemersma | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Reggie Germany | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeremy McDaniel | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Sheldon Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bills; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.89