Closing spread
NO -10
Total
41
Model margin
+3.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.195EPA / play-0.068
- 35.9%Success rate38.2%
- -0.169EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.203
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- 30.3%Third-down rate38.8%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 0.78Points / drive1.58
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.1%
- +0.016EPA / play allowed+0.009
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Weinke | 11/19 | 161 | 0 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Lytle | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Huntley | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Chris Weinke | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Nick Goings | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley Walls | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Donald Hayes | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Patrick Jeffers | 2 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 26/40 | 330 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 27 | 102 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 13 | 18 | 150 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 6 | 72 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 4 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 1 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.55