Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
38
Model margin
+1.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.031
- 41.5%Success rate41.1%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.011
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.079
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.9%
- 41.6%Third-down rate37.4%
- 48.0%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.32Points / drive1.16
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.079EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 43–14 since 1999
NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NE–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NE | Q1 11:52 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:42 | 8 | 53 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| NE | Q1 4:53 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:37 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NE | Q2 14:13 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:53 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NE | Q2 9:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:49 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| NE | Q2 2:47 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–13 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:29 | 4 | 16 | End of half | 0–13 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 0–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:14 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 0–13 |
| NE | Q3 12:25 | 5 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 10:19 | 5 | 20 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| NE | Q3 6:57 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 14–16 |
| NYJ | Q3 2:11 | 9 | 15 | Punt | 14–16 |
| NE | Q4 12:16 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:29 | 10 | 31 | Turnover | 17–16 |
| NE | Q4 2:02 | 4 | 9 | End of half | 17–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 20/28 | 213 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 6 | 9 | 60 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 8 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Fred Coleman | 1 | 1 | 46 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Rod Rutledge | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 18/32 | 172 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laveranues Coles | 3 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| Wayne Chrebet | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 2 | 7 | 40 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| James Dearth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.08