Closing spread
NE -5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.017
- 36.9%Success rate41.5%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.107
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- 31.3%Third-down rate41.6%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.05Points / drive1.32
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 11–2 since 1999
NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 20/39 | 244 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jackson | 16 | 34 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 8 | 12 | 95 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 2 | 11 | 29 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| James Jackson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| O.J. Santiago | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Quincy Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/28 | 218 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 21 | 76 | 3.6 | 2 |
| David Patten | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 7 | 8 | 89 | 0 |
| Terry Glenn | 4 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| David Patten | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.32