2001 · Week 13

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

16·27

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NE -5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.113EPA / play-0.017
  • 36.9%Success rate41.5%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.059
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.107
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • 31.3%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
  • 1.05Points / drive1.32
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.096EPA / play allowed-0.079

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 11–2 since 1999

NE have won 6 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. NE are 9-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8CLE @ NE13–32NE
2022 · W6NE @ CLE38–15NE
2021 · W10CLE @ NE7–45NE
2019 · W8CLE @ NE13–27NE
2016 · W5NE @ CLE33–13NE
2013 · W14CLE @ NE26–27NE
2010 · W9NE @ CLE14–34CLE
2007 · W5CLE @ NE17–34NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–NE
CLEQ1 15:0022Turnover0–0
NEQ1 14:08622Field goal0–3
CLEQ1 9:411554Field goal3–3
NEQ1 1:2110Opp touchdown10–3
CLEQ1 1:0200Opp touchdown10–3
NEQ1 1:021166Touchdown10–10
CLEQ2 9:393-7Punt10–10
NEQ2 8:2838Punt10–10
CLEQ2 6:55825Opp touchdown10–17
NEQ2 3:2800Opp touchdown10–17
CLEQ2 3:28650Turnover10–17
NEQ2 1:17756Field goal10–20
CLEQ2 0:0300End of half10–20
NEQ3 15:0031Turnover10–20
CLEQ3 13:52616Field goal13–20
NEQ3 10:4539Punt13–20
CLEQ3 8:4933Punt13–20
NEQ3 7:09535Missed field goal13–20
CLEQ3 4:1832Punt13–20
NEQ3 3:19733Missed field goal13–20
CLEQ3 0:0000Field goal13–20
CLEQ4 15:00658Field goal16–20
NEQ4 12:39415Punt16–20
CLEQ4 9:43217Turnover16–20
NEQ4 8:5230Punt16–20
CLEQ4 7:4536Punt16–20
NEQ4 6:04636Touchdown16–27
CLEQ4 2:43431Turnover16–27
NEQ4 1:4959Turnover on downs16–27
CLEQ4 0:03120End of half16–27

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tim Couch20/3924403

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Jackson16342.10
Tim Couch199.00
Jamel White273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin Johnson812950
Jamel White33570
Dennis Northcutt211290
JaJuan Dawson23260
James Jackson22150
O.J. Santiago24110
Aaron Shea11110
Quincy Morgan0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/2821802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antowain Smith21763.62
David Patten177.00
Kevin Faulk200.00
Troy Brown1-2-2.00
Tom Brady4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Brown78890
Terry Glenn44670
David Patten35410
Kevin Faulk33110
J.R. Redmond1280
Charles Johnson0200
Antowain Smith0100
Patrick Pass0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.7%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.32