Closing spread
NO -3
Total
39
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.062
- 38.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 38.8%Third-down rate40.9%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
- 1.58Points / drive1.45
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.009EPA / play allowed+0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 20/30 | 279 | 1 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1/1 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 54 | 54.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 7 | 10 | 138 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 18/32 | 233 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 12 | 7 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 6 | 7 | 92 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
6.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.73