Closing spread
NO -3
Total
39
Model margin
+2.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.062
- 38.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.007EPA / dropback+0.029
- -0.203EPA / rush-0.193
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.5%
- 38.8%Third-down rate40.9%
- 52.3%Red-zone TD rate42.1%
- 1.58Points / drive1.45
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.009EPA / play allowed+0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 8:44 | 11 | 68 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q1 2:43 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 2:32 | 2 | 20 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q1 1:45 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 13:50 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q2 12:14 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q2 10:07 | 4 | 13 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| NO | Q2 7:28 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 14–10 |
| ATL | Q2 4:05 | 6 | 16 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| NO | Q2 1:46 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 14–10 |
| ATL | Q2 1:23 | 4 | 12 | End of half | 14–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 38 | Punt | 14–10 |
| ATL | Q3 9:04 | 13 | 43 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| NO | Q3 1:09 | 7 | 60 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| ATL | Q4 13:22 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 20–10 |
| NO | Q4 12:28 | 1 | 50 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| ATL | Q4 12:20 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NO | Q4 10:20 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| ATL | Q4 8:16 | 8 | 36 | Turnover on downs | 28–10 |
| NO | Q4 5:12 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 28–10 |
| ATL | Q4 4:30 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 28–10 |
| NO | Q4 2:52 | 5 | 45 | End of half | 28–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 20/30 | 279 | 1 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1/1 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 54 | 54.0 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Brooks | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Horn | 7 | 10 | 138 | 1 |
| Willie Jackson | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Robert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Boo Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 18/32 | 233 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith | 12 | 7 | 0.6 | 1 |
| Chris Chandler | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Finneran | 6 | 7 | 92 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 2 | 7 | 18 | 0 |
| Maurice Smith | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
6.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.73