Closing spread
STL -7
Total
55
Model margin
-0.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 13/36 | 146 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 3 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 4 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.75
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.