Closing spread
STL -6
Total
51
Model margin
+0.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:43 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 10:40 | 9 | 29 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 5:46 | 8 | 46 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 0:24 | 4 | -8 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 13:17 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 9:31 | 6 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 14–7 |
| LA | Q2 7:04 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 4:13 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NO | Q2 2:55 | 4 | 38 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| LA | Q2 1:56 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| NO | Q2 0:28 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 21–14 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 21–14 |
| NO | Q3 11:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 21–14 |
| LA | Q3 11:09 | 2 | 43 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| NO | Q3 10:07 | 10 | 112 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| LA | Q3 3:45 | 4 | 38 | Turnover | 28–21 |
| NO | Q3 2:09 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 28–21 |
| LA | Q3 0:40 | 3 | -5 | Field goal | 31–21 |
| NO | Q4 14:18 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 31–21 |
| LA | Q4 13:02 | 10 | 18 | Field goal | 34–21 |
| NO | Q4 7:55 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 34–21 |
| LA | Q4 5:54 | 7 | 42 | Punt | 34–21 |
| NO | Q4 2:05 | 8 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 34–21 |
| LA | Q4 0:19 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 34–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 23/40 | 269 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| John Carney | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 8 | 11 | 156 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 3 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.