Closing spread
STL -6
Total
51
Model margin
+0.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 14–9 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 51.9 points. NO are 8-15 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | 23/40 | 269 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Aaron Brooks | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| John Carney | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Jackson | 8 | 11 | 156 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 3 | 6 | 31 | 1 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 4 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Robert Wilson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.