Closing spread
NE -3
Total
37
Model margin
+3.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.017
- 41.2%Success rate41.5%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.107
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- 41.1%Third-down rate41.6%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate48.0%
- 1.31Points / drive1.32
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 30–25 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–NE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 12:54 | 12 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 6:05 | 7 | 45 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 2:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 1:48 | 1 | 19 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NE | Q1 1:38 | 5 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 14:57 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NE | Q2 13:17 | 5 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| MIA | Q2 10:58 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–14 |
| NE | Q2 9:53 | 10 | 48 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| MIA | Q2 4:31 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| NE | Q2 4:24 | 8 | 19 | Field goal | 0–20 |
| MIA | Q2 0:57 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| NE | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–20 |
| NE | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 3–20 |
| MIA | Q3 9:10 | 9 | 58 | Turnover on downs | 3–20 |
| NE | Q3 4:42 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–20 |
| MIA | Q3 1:29 | 12 | 33 | Field goal | 6–20 |
| NE | Q4 13:41 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–20 |
| MIA | Q4 12:31 | 9 | 89 | Turnover | 6–20 |
| NE | Q4 8:51 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 6–20 |
| MIA | Q4 4:00 | 11 | 74 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| NE | Q4 1:28 | 3 | -5 | End of half | 13–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 21/37 | 320 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Smith | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jay Fiedler | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chambers | 7 | 11 | 124 | 0 |
| James McKnight | 5 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 2 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Hunter Goodwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 11/19 | 108 | 1 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1/1 | 23 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 26 | 156 | 6.0 | 1 |
| J.R. Redmond | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -5 | -1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Brown | 5 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Patrick Pass | 2 | 2 | 29 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Jermaine Wiggins | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Antowain Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.R. Redmond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.72